Harrison's Law

🧠 Harrison's Law: Why You Eventually Get Better at Estimating Time (After Failing Repeatedly)

The time it takes to do something converges to your original estimate, the more times you have to redo it.— Harrison's Law

If you've ever wildly underestimated how long a project would take—and then still got it wrong even after trying to plan better—you're familiar with Hofstadter's Law:

It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law.

But I want to share a personal insight, something I call Harrison's Law. Where Hofstadter's Law leans into frustration and futility, Harrison's Law offers a hopeful counterpoint: although your first estimate might be wildly off, with each iteration, your expectations and the actual time it takes begin to line up.

The Origin Story: My First Big Underestimate

Early in my career, I was tasked with building a complete application to help a team manage behavior among teenagers and young adults. My leader confidently gave me a three-month timeline to deliver the entire project. Armed with enthusiasm (and admittedly a bit of naïveté), I dove in headfirst.

Reality hit hard: the first full iteration took me six months — double the estimate. I was overwhelmed by unforeseen complexities, technical challenges, and evolving requirements. What made it worse was that I was largely working solo, learning on the fly.

But I didn't stop there. I ended up rewriting the app three more times. Each rewrite was faster than the last. With every pass, I understood the problem space better and refined my approach. Gradually, my time estimates became much more accurate.

Why Harrison's Law Matters

This experience led me to realize that time estimation is a skill honed through repetition and learning. The more times you redo a task, the closer your expectations and reality converge.

This has practical implications for anyone who plans or manages projects:

• Iteration is key: Don't expect perfect estimates on the first try. Embrace rework as part of the process.
• Experience builds intuition: Your brain refines its internal model of task complexity with each redo.
• Plan with feedback loops: Allow time for revisions and adjust your estimates accordingly.

Harrison vs. Hofstadter: Two Sides of Time Estimation

The Emotional Journey of Estimation

The first time you wildly miss your deadline, frustration and self-doubt can creep in. But as you push through, you start to see patterns. Your estimates become more grounded. That growing alignment brings a sense of mastery and control — even if the task remains difficult.

Final Thought: Track Your Time to Tune Your Clock

If you're discouraged by how long something takes at first, remember: you're on iteration one. Harrison's Law promises that, with persistence, your expectations and execution will eventually dance in sync.

But here's the catch: this convergence doesn't happen magically. You need accurate feedback to improve—and that means tracking your time diligently.

By recording how long tasks actually take, you gain two powerful advantages:

• Better estimates: With concrete data, your brain refines its internal model of effort and complexity. Next time you plan, you'll start with real numbers, not just guesses.
• Accountability: Tracking time keeps you honest with yourself, helping you avoid the temptation to fudge your estimates or procrastinate. It turns vague intentions into measurable commitments.

So if you want Harrison's Law to work for you, don't just redo your tasks—redo them with a stopwatch in hand.

Failure isn't just the path to success — it's the metronome that tunes your clock. And time tracking is your conductor.

Call to Action

Have you experienced the frustration of wildly underestimated projects that got better with each attempt? I'd love to hear your stories and how you track your time to improve estimates. Connect with me on LinkedIn — let's learn and grow together.

And if you found value in Harrison's Law, share this post with someone who needs a little patience and persistence on their side.